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Post by balddave on Jun 8, 2020 14:47:39 GMT
We're in the South West where the R is already at least 1. This easing will be the death of us - frighteningly true crack. The same with ourselves in the north west
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Post by dennisn on Jun 8, 2020 16:22:32 GMT
Annoyingly at the current Downing Street press conference, Matt Hancock says “overall” the country the R is below 1. Ooo GRRRR!
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Post by yorkshiremouth on Jun 8, 2020 16:32:03 GMT
Yes, fast and loose.
The truth is, no one knows what the R number is. They have to model what's going on, then create realistic estimates. Different models produce different estimates.
The government & SAGE get a variety of estimates from a variety of models, and:
- All say that R is <1 in the UK - Most say R is <1 in every region - One says R is 1 or slightly above in the SW & NW - The others all agree it's close to 1 in the SW & NW
I personally think we should have delayed the current easing up of restrictions for another couple of weeks, so ensure that everyone agreed it was safely below everywhere.
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Post by balddave on Jun 8, 2020 16:38:46 GMT
Unfortunately the R number they gave today relates to the rate 7-10 days ago, the figures are always in arrears, supposedly due to time needed to collate information and carry out calculations. They actually show this on their graphs ,but nobody from the media seems to pick up on it. I’m conscious this is not directly Skiathos related, but effects our ability to travel.
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Post by dennisn on Jun 8, 2020 16:46:33 GMT
Furthermore in my opinion, the R hovering around 1 is absolutely unacceptable, simply because it is so close to being wrong. It needs to be CONFIDENTLY estimate at 0.5 and under.
Yes, two more weeks except I’d rather a month, to get R much lower before easing anything.
I have several neighbours who have been flouting the system with visitors for at least three weeks. GRRRR! (We do all have large gardens - this estate is ancient from the days when gardens were gardens).
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Post by yorkshiremouth on Jun 8, 2020 18:46:31 GMT
Whilst I wouldn't want to lock into a figure, I agree. And as I said, they should be confident that it's safely below , and yes that means there needs to be room for error.
Waiting until it's just dipped under 0.95 for a couple of days doesn't do this.
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Post by dennisn on Jun 8, 2020 20:16:11 GMT
Yes. I’ll wait for the arguments over whether R is 0.2 or 0.1. With an error margin of 0.5.
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Post by cariad23 on Jun 9, 2020 5:19:18 GMT
I can’t believe it 11 weeks after lockdown the government have decided that ALL hospital staff must wear masks, I would have liked that from the beginning as it is impossible for us to be 2 metres apart. If quarantine had been put in place then too things would now be so much better. In our village you wouldn’t know from the number of people out at the shops chatting in groups anything was happening. Queues for Mac Donald’s blocking the roads. INSANE
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Post by yorkshiremouth on Jun 9, 2020 8:00:34 GMT
I’m not worried about the queues for McDonald’s.
If you can’t socially distance at 2m while you’re sat in different cars, there’s no hope for us anyway.
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Post by dennisn on Jun 9, 2020 8:25:31 GMT
Yes, Cariad. Let's recall a few highlights....
Avoid pubs and cinemas etc, etc and hope the pubs etc don't go bust, but in any event, don't give them a reason to claim compensation.
Herd immunity - let everybody catch it and then the ones who die will be dead and the ones who survive will be immune. Wear PPE. But when supplies run out, you don't need to wear it. Stay home if you're not important enough to go out.
Follow the correct science (not the wrong science, just the science that goes along with not needing to wear PPE when it runs out).
Follow the correct science (not the wrong science, just the science that goes along with not testing people who haven't got it, e.g. care homes and care workers).
Follow the correct science (not the wrong science, just the science that goes along with the resumption of working to produce income tax and NI contributions). Go back to work, we need your income tax and NI. Don't use public transport unless you need to and if you do, keep your distance on a 10 foot wide bus, train or tube. Wear a face covering (not a mask because there aren't enough around) - an old sock will do. Or if you're important, you probably have a ski mask to hand. You can go out in groups of six. You can meet in the garden, but don't go inside for a pee, especially if you're a child. You can go into Buckingham Palace and St James's Palace for exercise and the US ambassador's garden to play tennis (if you're important enough). Let them eat McDonalds.
I give up. The whole thing is a farce and a shambles - BUT it's costing lives.
Last one to leave, please turn out the lights!!!
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Post by balddave on Jun 9, 2020 9:22:51 GMT
It is concerning that since Greece relaxed its lockdown to allow visitors from certain countries their cases have risen by nearly 100 since last Thursday , 57 being registered in a single day yesterday. 30 of the cases are visitors.
It does make you wonder if the whole world is easing measures to early.
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Post by yorkshiremouth on Jun 9, 2020 11:34:53 GMT
It is concerning that since Greece relaxed its lockdown to allow visitors from certain countries their cases have risen by nearly 100 since last Thursday , 57 being registered in a single day yesterday. 30 of the cases are visitors. It does make you wonder if the whole world is easing measures to early. I think it's vital that Greece keeps an eye on this. Looking at the figures, they've had unusual spikes before - they had 156 on April 21st after just 10 on the 20th and none on the 19th, and the cases had been dropping for around 3 weeks. I wonder how many of those 30 visitors were in quarantine? If they were all, then that's working well. That leaves 22 Greeks, which isn't particularly large (thy had 19 on 2nd June), but it definitely needs monitoring. I'm sure they'll be doing this. I'm currently tracking UK figures - I'll be keeping a weather eye on this, thanks for the heads up. But at this stage, even that number (I have it as 52) is incredibly low. In comparison Germany had 336. When numbers are so low, the tiniest change can look massive. Time will tell.
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Post by yorkshiremouth on Jun 9, 2020 12:32:19 GMT
One small point though, bladdave.
I know you said "...since Greece relaxed its lockdown to allow visitors from certain countries their cases have risen..." that's not the case.
Apart from Serbia & Bulgaria (both countries with tiny infection rates), Greece hasn't opened its borders yet - it does so on Monday.
However, tavernas were reopened on the 25th May, which might coincide with the rise, given that infections show at the earliest after 4-5 days, and on average after a couple of weeks.
To be watched. Well spotted that man.
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Post by balddave on Jun 9, 2020 12:44:08 GMT
Reported as some being from Macedonia and Czech Republic,
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Post by yorkshiremouth on Jun 9, 2020 14:01:36 GMT
Reported as some being from Macedonia and Czech Republic, Right, unless I've got it wrong, they were allowed in, but only by land, from the 1st. This would account for those 30, but not the others. However, as that lowers the numbers, the Greek nationals don't look like quite such a big spike. By the way, a quick word on Northern Macedonia. They're one of the 29 countries for which restrictions were eased. Most had infection rates of between 5 & 10 new cases per million per day (all figures are on a 7-day rolling average). Two of those countries have seen an uptick in numbers. Israel has gone up to 14, but Northern Macedonia has shot up from a low of about 8 to 58. For comparison, the UK is at 24. The Czech Republic has started to rise, but by a very small amount, and very slowly. It currently stands at 5.4. If I were in charge, I'd have closed the borders to NM a week ago, when it went above 20, and it was clear it wasn't a blip. It's gone up almost every day for a fortnight! As ever, the science is good, but it's how you use it that's important.
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